Highlights from November 2018

November 2018 saw big falls for Oil with WTI down 22% and Brent down 20.8%. Equities turned largely positive after a disastrous October with the S & P 500 up 2% and NASDAQ 100 up 0.5% during November. Asia was positive too with the Hong Kong HSI Seng Index up 6.2% and the Japanese NIKKEI up 2%. European Stocks performed badly though with the German DAX down 1.7% and the Portuguese PSI down 3.1%. The biggest loser was Bitcoin, down 37% during the month.

Posts in November

Central Bank Balance Sheets Unwind

The Federal Reserve is unwinding its balance sheet, here’s why and how it is doing it

Here’s how the European Central Bank or ECB could unwind or reduce its balance sheet plus what is the new normal for the ECB?

 

GDP Growth

UK Q3 2018 GDP increased by 0.6% (growing 3 times quicker than the Eurozone and at the fastest pace since 2016) but business investment fell

Germany Q3 2018 GDP shrank 0.2% on the previous quarter (worst since 2015), did Eurozone really grow 0.2%?

Both the European Commission and the IMF are forecasting lower GDP growth in Europe

 

Economics

UK Money Velocity has been trending downwards for years

U.S. student debt outstanding now stands at $1.56 trillion but growth is slowest ever; Is university education value for money?

Nominal wages in the UK grew fastest in a decade but real wages are still lower than a decade ago

Eurozone and European Union trade stats for January to September 2018; EU trade surplus with the U.S. up 18% year on year as trade deficit with Russia up 38% year on year

Household credit growth in Canada is slowest in 35 years but outstanding household debt stands at over 125% of GDP and individual debt is already 175% of disposable income

Some insights into the current and future economic state of airlines

 

Markets in November

General Electric was the world’s most valuable company in 2000 worth $480 billion, today it is worth $75 billion

Just two charts – Oil and the Baltic Dry Index

Between January to the October peak, the FAANG stocks accounted for 82% of all the gains for the S & P 500 and the NASDAQ 100; The only stock to decelerate the stock market fall is … Microsoft

Endgame for Cryptocurrencies?

 

Winter is coming …

Is the Economic Winter here?