This is not government debt, this is simply Central Bank balance sheet per capita (for every person in that country), and the numbers are staggering …
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 5% in Quarter 1 (Q1) 2020 (vs Q4 2019) but grew 2.1% (vs Q1 2019) on back of economic activity being hit due to the spread of COVID-19. On a long-term average, the numbers aren’t really that bad but Q2 2020 will be far worse …
U.S. GDP grew at 2.1% in Quarter 4 (Q4) 2019 (vs Q3 2019) and 3.9% (vs Q4 2018).
Real gross domestic product (GDP) for the United States increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the Q2 2019 (vs 3.1% in Q1 2019), according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The Federal Reserve has unwound its balance sheet by 12% over the past year and reduced it to $3.81 trillion (from a peak of $4.5 trillion in 2017).
It has also increased interest rates since from 0.25% (range of 0% to 0.25%) in 2016 to 2.5% (range of 2.25% to 2.5%) now.
Money supply is simply the total amount of money in circulation in a country. For the U.S. there are several components of the money supply: M1, M2, and MZM (M3 is no longer tracked by the Federal Reserve); these components are arranged on a spectrum of narrowest to broadest.
Strong or weak economy? We look at
- The personal saving rate
- Consumer loan growth rate
- Growth rate of disposable personal income per capita
- Growth rate of personal consumption expenditures per capita
So, longer-term U.S. government bonds are now yielding lower than short-term bonds. Is this really a big economic warning?
Different measures tell another story:
- Real disposable personal income per capita
- Personal income payments
- Total employee compensation
- Personal consumption expenditures per capita