Here’s how the demographic and economic statistics look for candidate members of the European Union

We will be publishing a number of statistics for the United Kingdom (and the European Union) over the next few days in the run up to a major piece we will be publishing on the real economics of Brexit.

Montenegro, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are countries on the road to join the European Union.

European Union Membership 2018
Compiled by thistimeitisdifferent.com

 

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Euro Area or Eurozone Money Velocity seems to be shockingly low

We couldn’t find any official Money Velocity numbers for the Euro Area (Eurozone) so calculated it using the Equation of Exchange

Equation of Exchange

MV=PQ

Money Supply (M) * Money Velocity (V) = Price level (P) * Real economic output (Q)

Which means Money Supply * Money Velocity = Nominal GDP

Therefore, Money Velocity = Nominal GDP/Money Supply

We have the numbers for both Money Supply (from OECD – Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and Nominal GDP (from Eurostat) for the Euro Area.

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The European Union (and not China or the United States) accounted for the most trade in goods and services combined together

We will be publishing a number of statistics for the United Kingdom (and the European Union) over the next few days in the run up to a major piece we will be publishing on the real economics of Brexit.

The European Union (EU28 or EU) accounted for around one sixth of world trade in goods in 2016, with a 16.3% share of exports and a 15.0% share of imports. Turning to services the EU28’s contribution to world trade (mainly due to the United Kingdom which is leaving the European Union) was even greater, totalling 24.7% of exports and 21.1% of imports.

EU Share of total world trade
Data Source: Eurostat, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO)

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Eurozone Q2 2018 GDP up by 0.3% and European Union Q2 2018 GDP up by 0.4% as Household saving rate falls to the lowest in over a decade

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in the Eurozone and by 0.4% in the European Union (EU28) during the second quarter (Q2) of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

EU GDP until Q2 2018 chart
Source: Eurostat

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The European Union just posted a record trade surplus with the United States (and a record trade deficit with Russia) for the January to May 2018 period

The first estimate for the European Union exports of goods in May 2018 was €160.9 billion, down by 2.7% compared with May 2017 (€165.4 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €160.7 bn, down by 1.4% compared with May 2017 (€163.0 bn). As a result, the European Union recorded a €0.2 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in May 2018, compared with a surplus of €2.3 bn in May 2017. Intra-European Union trade rose to €294.7 bn in May 2018, +1.6% compared with May 2017.

In January to May 2018, the European Union exports of goods rose to €786.6 bn (an increase of 1.5% compared with January-May 2017), while imports rose to €795.7 bn (an increase of 1.6% compared with January-May 2017). As a result, the European Union recorded a deficit of €9.1 bn, compared with a deficit of €8.1 bn in January-May 2017. Intra-European Union trade rose to €1457.3 bn in January-May 2018, +4.6% compared with January-May 2017.

EU Trade chart until May 2018
Source: Eurostat

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Intra European Union (EU) Trade Statistics for 2017 – Germany was the largest exporter and importer, the Netherlands had the largest surplus and the United Kingdom the largest deficit

Some surprises in Intra European Union (EU) Trade Statistics for 2017: Germany was the largest exporter as expected but unexpectedly also the largest importer. The Netherlands (and not Germany) had the largest trade surplus. The United Kingdom had the largest trade deficit (no trade deal Brexit still on the table?)

EU Trade Balance 2017
Data Source: Eurostat

Here is additional information, the complete dataset and maps,

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Unemployment in Europe is lowest since 2008 but is still twice that of the United States

The Euro Area unemployment rate was 8.5% in April 2018, down from 8.6% in March 2018 and from 9.2% in April 2017. This is the lowest since December 2008 but still more than double of the US unemployment rate of 3.9% reported in April (the US unemployment rate further fell to 3.8% in May). The EU28 unemployment rate was 7.1% in April 2018, stable compared with March 2018 and down from 7.8% in April 2017. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since September 2008.

Data Source: Eurostat (for the European Union and Iceland), State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (for Switzerland), Office for National Statistics (for the United Kingdom)
Data Source: Eurostat (for the European Union and Iceland), State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (for Switzerland), Office for National Statistics (for the United Kingdom)

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European Union Trade Statistics for January to March (Q1) 2018

Key highlights

  • The total trade surplus for the European Union increased from €15.6 bn in Q1 2017 to €19.1 bn in Q1 2018, total exports were 1.34 trillion and total imports were 1.33 trillion
  • 10 of the 28 European Union countries had a trade surplus in Q1 2018 and 18 had a trade deficit
  • Germany had the largest trade surplus in Q1 2018 at €62.2 bn, Netherlands at €15.8 bn and Ireland at €12.4 bn
  • The United Kingdom had the largest trade deficit in Q1 2018 at €41.1 bn, France at €21.2 bn and Spain at €7.9 bn

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Europe’s lost economic decade in charts

  • Parts of the European Union have seen GDP per capita shrink between 2007 and 2017 and the overall compounded annual growth rate for the European Union was just 1.2%
  • GDP growth for the European Union between 2007 and 2017 adjusted for inflation was negative
  • Banks in Greece, Cyprus, Portugal and Italy have a non-performing loan ratio of over 10% a decade on from the financial crisis and have only provisioned around 50% of the losses
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is by far the biggest holder of European bonds and has a balance sheet of €4.5 trillion or some 45% of the GDP of the Eurozone
  • 18 of the 28 countries that are part of the European Union have seen house prices fall between 2008 and 2017
  • Greece has been the worst affected country, with its stock market down 85% since 2007, GDP per capita down 22% since 2007, house prices down 43% since 2008 and banks in Greece currently have a non-performing loan ratio of 42%
  • Eurozone Debt as % of GDP is gradually falling but is still historically high
  • Since the financial crisis of 2008, economic uncertainty has seen falling fertility rates for the European Union with population now set to fall over the coming decades

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