U.S. Q1 2019 GDP contracts 5% (QoQ) but grows 2.1% (YoY) as COVID-19 hits economic activity

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 5% in Quarter 1 (Q1) 2020 (vs Q4 2019) but grew 2.1% (vs Q1 2019) on back of economic activity being hit due to the spread of COVID-19. On a long-term average, the numbers aren’t really that bad but Q2 2020 will be far worse …

US Q1 2020 GDP Year on Year change 10 year bar chart

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European Union Q1 2020 GDP contracts by 3.3% (QoQ) and contracts 2.6% (YoY); Euro Area or Eurozone Q1 2020 GDP contracts by 3.8% (QoQ) and contracts 3.2% (YoY); France, Spain and Italy see largest falls

GDP contracted for the European Union (EU27) by 3.3% in the first quarter (Q1) 2020 (compared to Q4 2019) and by 2.6% (compared to Q1 2019).

GDP contracted for the Euro Area or Eurozone (EA19) by 3.8% in the first quarter (Q1) 2020 (compared to Q4 2019) and by 3.2% (compared to Q1 2019).

Eurozone European Union EU Q1 2020 GDP growth
Source: Eurostat

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UK Q1 2020 GDP contracts by 2% (QoQ) and contracts 1.6% (YoY); Services, Production and Construction all contract; Household consumption falls the most since 2008

UK Q1 2020 gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have fallen by 2% in the quarter compared to Q4 2019, the largest fall since Q4 2008.

When compared with the same quarter (Q1 2019) a year ago, UK GDP decreased by 1.6% in Q1 2020 which was the biggest fall since Q4 2009.

UK 2020 Q1 GDP

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Highlights from March 2020 – Coronavirus now a pandemic; Equities record worst month since 2008; Government bond yields fall further; Major Shock, recession, or depression?

COVID-19 (Coronavirus) now a pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on the 11th of March. New cases and fatalities are growing exponentially. At the end of March there were about 857,000 cases globally (up from 85,000 at the end of February and 9,500 at the end of January).

Continue reading “Highlights from March 2020 – Coronavirus now a pandemic; Equities record worst month since 2008; Government bond yields fall further; Major Shock, recession, or depression?”

European Union (EU) Q4 2019 GDP growth at 0.2% (QoQ), 1.2% (YoY), 2019 growth at 1.5% (YoY); Euro area (Eurozone) Q4 2019 GDP growth at 0.1% (QoQ), 1% (YoY), 2019 growth at 1.2% (YoY)

Q4 2019 GDP growth

GDP growth for the European Union (EU27) was 0.2% in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2019 (compared to Q3 2019) and 1.2% (compared to Q4 2018).

GDP growth for the Euro Area or Eurozone (EA19) was 0.1% in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2019 (compared to Q3 2019) and 1% (compared to Q4 2018).

Eurozone European Union EU Q4 2019 GDP growth

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Highlights from February 2020 – Coronavirus moves the market; Oil down 27% so far in 2020; Equities Collapse; U.S. Treasury yields hit all-time lows; Japanese Q4 GDP falls big

Coronavirus – Worse than SARS and MERS

The new Coronavirus (officially named COVID-19 now) infected 85,000 people at the end of February (up from 9,500 at the end of January). It is far more widespread now, not just in China but across other Asian countries. Far worse than SARS and MERS already – will this turn out to be a global pandemic?

Continue reading “Highlights from February 2020 – Coronavirus moves the market; Oil down 27% so far in 2020; Equities Collapse; U.S. Treasury yields hit all-time lows; Japanese Q4 GDP falls big”

Highlights from January 2020 – U.S. equities flat but emerging markets fall big; Bonds deliver big returns; Brexit finally happened; Economic Growth slowing; Coronavirus

Not a stellar start for Equities in 2020

2019 was a stellar year for the equity markets, the new year started off well but there was volatility by the end of the month.

Continue reading “Highlights from January 2020 – U.S. equities flat but emerging markets fall big; Bonds deliver big returns; Brexit finally happened; Economic Growth slowing; Coronavirus”