European Commission (again) cuts GDP growth forecast for the European Union; Bank of England cuts UK GDP growth forecast; Germany forecast to grow slower than the UK despite Brexit

The European Commission slashed their GDP growth forecast for the European Union (excluding the United Kingdom) and the Eurozone for 2019 and 2020 citing slowing growth in China and weakening global trade.

The growth forecast for 2019 for the European Union (excluding the United Kingdom) was cut to 1.5% for 2019 (was previously forecast 2%) and for the Eurozone was cut to 1.3% (was previously forecast 1.9%).

Germany, Italy and the Netherlands all saw big downgrades for their growth outlook.

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Eurozone Q4 2018 GDP up by 0.2% and European Union Q4 2018 GDP up by 0.3%; 2018 annual GDP growth at 1.8% for the Eurozone and 1.9% for EU; Italy in Recession

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the Euro area or Eurozone (EA) and by 0.3% in the European Union (EU) during Q4 2018, compared with Q3 2018.

EU and Eurozone GDP up to Q4 2018
Source: Eurostat

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Germany Q3 2018 GDP shrank 0.2% on the previous quarter (worst since 2015), did Eurozone really grow 0.2%?

The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that the German GDP shrank by 0.2% in the third quarter (vs the second quarter) of 2018. Growth was +1.1% on the same quarter a year earlier following increases of 2.3% in the second quarter (calendar adjusted: +2.0%) and 1.4% in the first quarter of 2018 (calendar adjusted: +2.1%).

German Q3 2018 GDP

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UK Q3 2018 GDP increased by 0.6% (growing 3 times quicker than the Eurozone and at the fastest pace since 2016) but business investment fell

UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.6% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2018 and Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018.

In comparison with the same quarter in the previous year, the UK economy has grown by 1.5%, continuing its relatively subdued performance over the last year.

UK 2018 Q3 GDP QoQ growth

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Eurozone Q3 2018 GDP up by 0.2% and European Union Q3 2018 GDP up by 0.3%, both lowest since 2013; Italy grew 0%; Eurozone economic sentiment falls for the 10th consecutive month

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the Eurozone or Euro Area and by 0.3% in the European Union (EU) during the third quarter of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the second quarter of 2018, GDP had grown by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.5% the European Union.

Q3 2018 GDP Eurozone and EU
Source: Eurostat

Continue reading “Eurozone Q3 2018 GDP up by 0.2% and European Union Q3 2018 GDP up by 0.3%, both lowest since 2013; Italy grew 0%; Eurozone economic sentiment falls for the 10th consecutive month”