The U.S. economy is set to contribute its highest share of global GDP since 2007 as other economies everywhere else stumble

The U.S. economy is doing great and is set to contribute 25% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, its highest share since 2007. The rise of the U.S. dollar and increases in interest rates are squeezing emerging economics at an unprecedent pace. But it isn’t just emerging economies that are feeling the squeeze, Europe has its problems with Italian debt (and yields), the Australian dollar which has long been considered a growth asset has been falling this year and elsewhere trade worries and rising oil prices are having a big impact on other nations. Even German factory orders are the weakest in years as the U.S. is truly taking back economic leadership.

Continue reading “The U.S. economy is set to contribute its highest share of global GDP since 2007 as other economies everywhere else stumble”

Eurozone Q2 2018 GDP up by 0.3% and European Union Q2 2018 GDP up by 0.4% as Household saving rate falls to the lowest in over a decade

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in the Eurozone and by 0.4% in the European Union (EU28) during the second quarter (Q2) of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

EU GDP until Q2 2018 chart
Source: Eurostat

Continue reading “Eurozone Q2 2018 GDP up by 0.3% and European Union Q2 2018 GDP up by 0.4% as Household saving rate falls to the lowest in over a decade”

Here’s how much money supply has grown for major economies in the past decade (2008 to 2018)

Broad Money M3

Broad money (M3) includes currency, deposits with an agreed maturity of up to two years, deposits redeemable at notice of up to three months and repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units and debt securities up to two years.

M3 Money Supply Growth Global
Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

Continue reading “Here’s how much money supply has grown for major economies in the past decade (2008 to 2018)”

Weekly Overview: Emerging Market Rout; New Italian Government; Japan GDP; Oil surge continues

Emerging Markets are being routed with rising oil and a soaring US dollar

Here is the performance of the US dollar against emerging market currencies (figures in brackets are 1-month % change),

USD/MXN – Mexico 19.9450 (+8.17%)
USD/INR – India 67.9850 (+3.23%)
USD/TRY – Turkey 4.4894 (+10.07%)
USD/BRL – Brazil 3.7375 (+10.33%)
USD/ZAR – South Africa 12.7550 (+6.71%) Continue reading “Weekly Overview: Emerging Market Rout; New Italian Government; Japan GDP; Oil surge continues”

US and emerging market bond yields soar; UK retail; US Student debt; German GDP

US and emerging market bond yields

The US 10-year bond yield soared to 3.09% today (up 75 bps over the past year and 25 bps over the past month), the highest since 2011. The 2-year yield hit 2.59%, the highest since August 2008 (read more here on the financial impact of rising yields for the US Government).

The bigger story is of emerging markets though. Brazilian and Indian 10-year yields have soared 33 bps in just a week. The Brazilian 10-year bond yield topped 10.12% while the Indian 10-year bond yield topped 7.91%. The US dollar has gained 7% against the Brazilian Real and 4% against the Indian Rupee over the past month.

Canadian bond yields are soaring the most amongst developed nations with the 10-year yield hitting 2.51%, up 94 bps over the past year and 24 bps over the past month. Continue reading “US and emerging market bond yields soar; UK retail; US Student debt; German GDP”

Weekly Overview: Q1 2018 GDP numbers; ECB on QE; US bond yields soar; Other things

Q1 2018 GDP

The US, the UK, France and Spain all reported GDP numbers over the last week.

US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018 as per an advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Read more about it here.

Personal consumption collapsed, with vehicle sale falling significantly. Business inventories were up significantly too. Total employee compensation (which includes wages and benefits) rose 2.7% over past 12 months, up from 2.4% a year ago and the highest since Q3 2008, while the household savings rate fell to a multi-year low of 3.1%.

Continue reading “Weekly Overview: Q1 2018 GDP numbers; ECB on QE; US bond yields soar; Other things”