Household credit growth in Canada is slowest in 35 years but outstanding household debt stands at over 125% of GDP and individual debt is already 175% of disposable income

Households in Canada are accumulating debt at the slowest pace in 35 years as interest rates continue to rise. Household credit growth has slowed to 3.5%, the slowest since 1983.

Canada Household Credit Growth Rate November 2018
Source: Bank of Canada

Continue reading “Household credit growth in Canada is slowest in 35 years but outstanding household debt stands at over 125% of GDP and individual debt is already 175% of disposable income”

Australian credit growth is slowing with Investor housing credit growth slowest ever, Broad Money Supply growth slowest since the last recession 26 years ago

Australian credit growth is slowing but outstanding debt remains at historically high levels. Housing credit growth, personal credit growth, investor housing credit growth and business credit growth are all slowing. But the rather surprising thing is broad money (M3) supply growing at a 12-month rate of just 1.9%, the slowest since 1992 when Australia faced eight consecutive quarters of declining economic growth.

Australia Broad Money M3 12-month growth rate until July 2018
Data Source: Reserve Bank Of Australia

Continue reading “Australian credit growth is slowing with Investor housing credit growth slowest ever, Broad Money Supply growth slowest since the last recession 26 years ago”

Canadian household credit growth is slowest since 2001 but individual debt is already 175 percent of disposable income

Canadian household credit growth is slowest since 2001 with Household credit (Annualized 3-month growth rate) growing at 2.98% and Household Mortgage credit (Annualized 3-month growth rate) growing at 2.85%.

Canada household credit growth up to June 2018
Data Source: Bank of Canada

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US and emerging market bond yields soar; UK retail; US Student debt; German GDP

US and emerging market bond yields

The US 10-year bond yield soared to 3.09% today (up 75 bps over the past year and 25 bps over the past month), the highest since 2011. The 2-year yield hit 2.59%, the highest since August 2008 (read more here on the financial impact of rising yields for the US Government).

The bigger story is of emerging markets though. Brazilian and Indian 10-year yields have soared 33 bps in just a week. The Brazilian 10-year bond yield topped 10.12% while the Indian 10-year bond yield topped 7.91%. The US dollar has gained 7% against the Brazilian Real and 4% against the Indian Rupee over the past month.

Canadian bond yields are soaring the most amongst developed nations with the 10-year yield hitting 2.51%, up 94 bps over the past year and 24 bps over the past month. Continue reading “US and emerging market bond yields soar; UK retail; US Student debt; German GDP”

US consumer and commercial debt hit record highs but charge-off and delinquency rates remain at low levels

Here is the debt outstanding for all commercial banks in the US (all data as of March 31, 2018),

Total consumer credit including student loans $3.9 trillion (up from $2.6 trillion in 2008)
Total commercial and industrial loans $2.15 trillion (up from $1.5 trillion in 2008)
Commercial real estate loans $2.1 trillion (up from $1.6 trillion in 2008)
Mortgage Backed Securities $1.76 trillion (up from $800 billion in 2009)
Student loans $1.5 trillion (up from $500 billion in 2008)
Consumer credit cards and other revolving credit $775 billion (up from $400 billion in 2008)
Mortgage debt $1.32 trillion (down from $1.42 trillion in 2008)

Total Consumer Credit Outstanding:

US Total Consumer Outstanding, All Commercial Banks
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)

Continue reading “US consumer and commercial debt hit record highs but charge-off and delinquency rates remain at low levels”