Why wouldn’t it be?
Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession (2 quarters of negative growth) by growing at 0% (non-negative) in Q4 2018.
Q4 GDP was
Continue reading “Germany Q4 2018 GDP growth was 0%, narrowly avoids technical recession”
The European Commission slashed their GDP growth forecast for the European Union (excluding the United Kingdom) and the Eurozone for 2019 and 2020 citing slowing growth in China and weakening global trade.
The growth forecast for 2019 for the European Union (excluding the United Kingdom) was cut to 1.5% for 2019 (was previously forecast 2%) and for the Eurozone was cut to 1.3% (was previously forecast 1.9%).
Germany, Italy and the Netherlands all saw big downgrades for their growth outlook.
The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that the German GDP shrank by 0.2% in the third quarter (vs the second quarter) of 2018. Growth was +1.1% on the same quarter a year earlier following increases of 2.3% in the second quarter (calendar adjusted: +2.0%) and 1.4% in the first quarter of 2018 (calendar adjusted: +2.1%).
Sixteen members of the European Union recorded current account surpluses, eleven current account deficits and one was in current account balance in the second quarter of 2018 for the total (intra-EU plus extra-EU) current account balances of the European Union (EU28) Member States.
The highest surpluses were observed in Germany (+€63.8 bn), the Netherlands (+€16.8 bn), Italy (+€10.5 bn), Ireland (+€10.2 bn) and Denmark (+€3.6), and the largest deficits in the United Kingdom (-€20.7 bn), Romania (-€2.6 bn) and Belgium (-€2.4 bn).
Some surprises in Intra European Union (EU) Trade Statistics for 2017: Germany was the largest exporter as expected but unexpectedly also the largest importer. The Netherlands (and not Germany) had the largest trade surplus. The United Kingdom had the largest trade deficit (no trade deal Brexit still on the table?)
Here is additional information, the complete dataset and maps,
US and emerging market bond yields
The US 10-year bond yield soared to 3.09% today (up 75 bps over the past year and 25 bps over the past month), the highest since 2011. The 2-year yield hit 2.59%, the highest since August 2008 (read more here on the financial impact of rising yields for the US Government).
The bigger story is of emerging markets though. Brazilian and Indian 10-year yields have soared 33 bps in just a week. The Brazilian 10-year bond yield topped 10.12% while the Indian 10-year bond yield topped 7.91%. The US dollar has gained 7% against the Brazilian Real and 4% against the Indian Rupee over the past month.
Canadian bond yields are soaring the most amongst developed nations with the 10-year yield hitting 2.51%, up 94 bps over the past year and 24 bps over the past month. Continue reading “US and emerging market bond yields soar; UK retail; US Student debt; German GDP”
The divergence of interest rates, bond yields, inflation, currency strength, budget deficit and total debt of countries around the world has never been bigger. We look at how the US, the UK, the Eurozone, Japan, Switzerland and India are doing in addressing paying off their debt. Continue reading “High (or hyper) inflation or long term zero (or negative) interest rates – how might the world pay its debt?”
Greece (Moody’s Credit Rating: Caa2) is now paying 83 bps lower interest on 2-year bonds than the US (Moody’s Credit Rating: Aaa). Is the US now truly the exception? Continue reading “US 10-year bond yield hits a 4-year high, is the US now an exception?”
What a difference a year makes, these are the current 10 year government bond yields, Continue reading “Impact of interest rates in the US and the UK heading higher”