Eurozone Q4 2018 GDP up by 0.2% and European Union Q4 2018 GDP up by 0.3%; 2018 annual GDP growth at 1.8% for the Eurozone and 1.9% for EU; Italy in Recession

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the Euro area or Eurozone (EA) and by 0.3% in the European Union (EU) during Q4 2018, compared with Q3 2018.

EU and Eurozone GDP up to Q4 2018
Source: Eurostat

Compared with Q4 2017, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.2% in the Eurozone and by 1.5% in the EU in Q4 2018.

EU and Eurozone GDP up to Q4 2018 table
Source: Eurostat

Annual 2018 GDP growth was 1.8% in the Euro area or Eurozone and 1.9% in the European Union. All these numbers are preliminary estimates and could be revised later.

 

Italy in Recession

Meanwhile, Italy’s economy tipped into recession at the end of last year based on the latest statistics from ITSAT, the statistical office of Italy. In Q4 2018, the economy shrank by 0.2%, following a 0.1% decline in Q3 2018. Two quarters of negative growth is a technical recession.

The Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expects the economic contraction to continue for a few quarters. Italy has the biggest government debt among European Union members at more than €2.3 trillion ($2.6 trillion).  Italy’s government debt to GDP currently stands at 132%, which is second to only Greece in the European Union.

 

Growth elsewhere in the Eurozone

Some other Eurozone economies are growing relatively well compared to Italy, with France and Spain posting growth rates of 0.3% and 0.7% growth in Q4 2018 (vs Q3 2018). Germany now expects to grow by just 1% in 2019 due to slower global economic growth, trade uncertainty and Brexit.

 

Falling growth expectations for Europe

We wrote at the end of last year that both the European Commission and the IMF are forecasting lower GDP growth in Europe in 2019 and beyond.

Here are their growth expectations,

European Commission GDP 2018 to 2020 estimates
Source: European Commission
IMF GDP 2018 to 2020 estimates
Source: IMF

 

 

Related:

Both the European Commission and the IMF are forecasting lower GDP growth in Europe in 2019 and beyond

Past, present, future – some demographic and economic statistics for the European Union

Eurozone Q3 2018 GDP up by 0.2% and European Union Q3 2018 GDP up by 0.3%, both lowest since 2013; Italy grew 0%; Eurozone economic sentiment falls for the 10th consecutive month

Parts of the European Union have seen nominal GDP per capita fall between 2007 and 2017

Europe’s aging population is set to cause huge economic challenges

 

The Eurozone or Euro area (EA) currently includes Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland.

The European Union (EU) currently includes Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia (formerly the Czech Republic), Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Leave a Reply

Your e-mail address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.