The IMF lowers global growth forecast again

The IMF reckons that global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of 2018. According to the IMF, the escalation of US–China trade tensions, credit tightening in China, macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, and financial tightening alongside the normalization of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies have all contributed to a significantly weakened global expansion.

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Chances of a U.S. recession? Our three U.S. recession indicators – how near or far are those from being invoked? March 2019 Edition

We wrote about three slightly different U.S. recession indicators that have been predictive of the past few recessions and have been tracking how near or far are those from being invoked, here’s where we are in March 2019,

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Interest rates are headed downwards as global bond yields are falling quickly again

At the start of 2019 we wrote that 2019 will be a year that will be different with interest rate hikes slowing or interest rates even reversing.

Earlier this month the European Central Bank said interest rates would remain at record lows at least until the end of the year and then last week this was followed by the Federal Reserve saying that it does not expect an interest rate rise for the U.S. for the rest of 2019.

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