The IMF reckons that global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of 2018. According to the IMF, the escalation of US–China trade tensions, credit tightening in China, macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, and financial tightening alongside the normalization of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies have all contributed to a significantly weakened global expansion.
Is the global economy slowing? We look at four charts – lumber prices, iron ore prices, aluminium prices and the Baltic Dry index.
The U.S. fiscal deficit hit an annualized $1.06 trillion in 2018 but relatively speaking it isn’t that bad. The fiscal deficit had hit $1.5 trillion in 2009 in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the current level is the most since 2012.
U.S. corporations made a record $2.03 trillion in profits after taxes in 2018,
We wrote about three slightly different U.S. recession indicators that have been predictive of the past few recessions and have been tracking how near or far are those from being invoked, here’s where we are in March 2019,
At the start of 2019 we wrote that 2019 will be a year that will be different with interest rate hikes slowing or interest rates even reversing.
Earlier this month the European Central Bank said interest rates would remain at record lows at least until the end of the year and then last week this was followed by the Federal Reserve saying that it does not expect an interest rate rise for the U.S. for the rest of 2019.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced during the week that it had decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds between 2.25% to 2.5%.
Gross U.S. Federal Debt as percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) hit 105% in 2018, the highest since 1946.
The 1980s was the Japanese decade with Japanese companies being the most valuable ones in the world and Japan being at the centre of the global economic growth. But since the 1990s, Japan has struggled with growth and deflation.
The answer is different on how you look at it – in terms of absolute outstanding debt, growth rates and relative to GDP.
In absolute terms the total credit market or total debt outstanding of the U.S. which includes debt owed by the government (Federal and local), corporations and households stands at $72 trillion.