We haven’t written about government bond yields recently but there has been a lot of action in the bond market. Government bond yields have been falling globally which are an indicator that markets are expecting stagnant or falling interest rates. 10-year government bonds are the most tracked and traded and yields have mostly fallen compared to a year ago.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is now at 2.65%, down 19 bps from a year ago.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield minus the 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield spread has been a good indicator of past recessions. Yield curve inversion which happens when the spread turns negative and has preceded the last seven straight recessions. The 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield minus the 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield is the lowest since the last recession at only 10 bps.
Is China selling U.S Government Bonds (Treasury Bills, T-Bonds and Notes) given the trade war tensions between China and the United States? The simple answer to that is no. Actually, no major foreign country holder of bonds is really selling.
But you might wonder what is going on if you make a chart look like this,