European Commission (again) cuts GDP growth forecast for the European Union; Bank of England cuts UK GDP growth forecast; Germany forecast to grow slower than the UK despite Brexit

The European Commission slashed their GDP growth forecast for the European Union (excluding the United Kingdom) and the Eurozone for 2019 and 2020 citing slowing growth in China and weakening global trade.

The growth forecast for 2019 for the European Union (excluding the United Kingdom) was cut to 1.5% for 2019 (was previously forecast 2%) and for the Eurozone was cut to 1.3% (was previously forecast 1.9%).

Germany, Italy and the Netherlands all saw big downgrades for their growth outlook.

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Is Household Debt in the U.S. really a bigger problem than before the financial crisis?

There are various ways to look at Household Debt (total debt outstanding including mortgages, loans, credit cards and other debt) in the United States, we look at two today.

The first is debt servicing costs to disposable income which effectively is how much it costs to service household debt as a fraction of disposable (after tax) income. The second is household debt outstanding to disposable income which effectively is how much debt there is with respect to the same disposable (after tax) income measure.

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Eurozone Q4 2018 GDP up by 0.2% and European Union Q4 2018 GDP up by 0.3%; 2018 annual GDP growth at 1.8% for the Eurozone and 1.9% for EU; Italy in Recession

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the Euro area or Eurozone (EA) and by 0.3% in the European Union (EU) during Q4 2018, compared with Q3 2018.

EU and Eurozone GDP up to Q4 2018
Source: Eurostat

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Delinquency and Charge-off rates across banks in the United States remain low (January 2019 edition)

We answered the question whether bad loans were really increasing for banks in the United States at the end of December. We look at Delinquency and Charge-off rates across banks for United States across different products in this post.

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Individuals now consistently contribute over 80% of all U.S. federal taxes

One big impact of the U.S. tax cut for corporations has been that corporate taxes now just contribute 8.3% of all U.S. federal taxes. As import tariffs rise, custom duties have been rising at a staggering rate, and tariffs on imported goods together with taxes levied at production now contribute 8.1% of all U.S. federal taxes. Taxes paid by individuals contribute the vast majority or 82.3% of all U.S. federal taxes.

US tax breakdown until Q3 2018

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The U.S. total wage bill to corporate profitability ratio throws up several questions

In September last year we wrote why wages weren’t rising despite record employment and labour shortages and earlier this month we wrote that U.S. Corporate profits have been growing well and have hit a record high. We explore another angle, total wages (wages including bonuses and overtime – all before taxes) to the corporate profits (before taxes) ratio.

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