The US Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveals that the US unemployment rate has a hit a new multi-year low four to eight months before the start of every recession since the 1940s. In other words, the economy hits full employment four to eight months before the start of a recession.
The graph below might help visualise it better (the shaded areas indicate recessions),
Hidden away in the European Central Bank’s supervisory and prudential statistics are metrics for asset quality. It isn’t easy to find and if you do find them then the spreadsheets won’t open without issues. Once If you manage to get them to work you will find some quite stunning statistics.
US employers added only 103,000 jobs in March as against 185,000 new jobs expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Jobs have been added for 90 straight months, the longest phase on record. January’s job addition number was revised sharply downward from 239,000 to 176,000. Wage growth was 2.7% which was largely down to tax cuts driven wage rises earlier during the year rather than real wage inflation.
Any addition under 80,000 new jobs a month would cause the unemployment rate to rise. As we covered earlier, unemployment has always hit record multi year lows on an average 6 to 12 months before the start of a recession.
The 10 largest asset managers in the world, a list that includes BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Fidelity, Allianz, UBS and JP Morgan Asset Management have some $32 trillion assets under management (at the end of 2017). The entire space of asset managers have around $65 trillion of assets under management.
Everything by design is kind of complicated. And because it is complicated it is inefficient. But inefficiency keeps people in jobs. Let us explain.
Education is form of an inefficiency. Just 20% of people go on to a role that requires their knowledge from college or university education. But keeping more people in education keeps them out of the job market.
Government regulations change so often that it inherently creates several roles. The law is complicated and inefficient, but it keeps many people in a job and creates new jobs.