Why wouldn’t it be?
1. Total tax receipts are down 5% year on year (Q1 2018 vs Q1 2017)
Total tax receipts are down 5% year on year from $2.14 trillion in Q1 2017 to $2.04 trillion in Q1 2018.
Continue reading “The impact of tax cuts in the U.S. on Federal finances so far”
1. The U.S. has the 13th lowest average tariffs in the world as per the World Trade Organisation
We wrote about average import tariffs or custom duties per country, the United States has the 13th lowest tariffs in the world (out of the 165 members of the World Trade Organization) at only 3.48%.
2. … but the U.S. only charged 1.65% in tariffs in 2017
The WTO number is averaged across all products; the actual tariffs could be different based on the product mix of imports as well as any special trade deals the country may be part of.
In the case of the U.S., the actual import tariff or custom duty was just $38.49 billion or 1.65% of the value of $2.34 trillion in imports in 2017.
3. The U.S. did have a Trade deficit with Canada in 2017
Canada was the largest export market with exports of $282.47 billion in 2017. Canada was also the third largest market for imports behind only China and Mexico with total imports of $299.98 billion and a trade deficit of $17.5 billion. The trade deficit itself with Canada was the 12th largest for the U.S. in 2017.
4. All constituent countries taken together, the European Union was the largest export market for the U.S. in 2017
The U.S. had exports worth $284 billion to the 28 European Union Countries in 2017, beating Canada with $282.5 billion of exports in 2017. Continue reading “14 things about U.S. trade and trade tariffs”
Interest Rates
What a difference a year makes. The Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates thrice (in December, March and June) with a target rate range of 1.75% to 2% now. The Eurozone meanwhile maintains its zero-interest rate policy.
We wrote recently about three slightly different U.S. recession indicators that have been predictive of the past few recessions. How near or far are those from being invoked?
30-year and 10-year Treasury yield
The 10-year Treasury yield has been greater than the 30-year Treasury yield three to six months before each of the past four. Currently the difference is just 19 bps.
And the 30-year, 20-year and 10-year Treasury yields have almost converged three to six months before each of the past five recessions as well. The 20-year yield already 3 bps higher than the 30-year yield, they have been converging for the past two weeks.
The biggest growth in jobs since 2007 in the United States has been in the Educational sector while most jobs have been lost in Manufacturing.
Households in the United States have a total net worth (or wealth in other words) of $100.77 trillion at the end of Q1 2018. The number is up from $56.27 trillion at the end of Q4 2008.
Continue reading “U.S. Household Net Worth now exceeds $100 trillion”
Here are three slightly different US recession indicators that have been predictive of the past few recessions,
30-year and 10-year Treasury yield
The 10-year Treasury yield has been greater than the 30-year Treasury yield three to six months before each of the past four recessions. Graph below for the past decade, the shaded areas indicate recessions,
And the 30-year, 20-year and 10-year Treasury yields have almost converged three to six months before each of the past five recessions as well. Graph below, the shaded areas indicate recessions,
Continue reading “Three slightly different US recession indicators”
Manufacturing has been in focus recently in the United States with trade tariffs being discussed and the talk of bringing back some manufacturing to the United States.
U.S. manufacturing has been growing but it isn’t generating too many new jobs.
The reasons are simple:
Here are some graphs,
Indexed Number of manufacturing jobs vs Indexed manufacturing output (Both indexed to January 2012 = 100)
Deutsche Bank
Apparently, the new CEO of Deutsche Bank is “sick and tired of bad news”. Here are some recent events,
April 8: Christian Sewing is appointed new CEO of Deutsche Bank.
April 15: The European Central Bank (ECB) asks Deutsche Bank to estimate the cost of winding down its investment bank.
Thursday, May 31: The Financial Times reported that Deutsche Bank’s US subsidiary was added to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s list of “problem banks,” or those with weaknesses that threaten their financial survival.
Thursday, May 31: Deutsche Bank shares hit an all-time low.
Friday, June 1: Standard & Poor’s cut Deutsche Bank’s credit rating from A- to BBB+. The ratings agency also questioned whether Deutsche Bank’s new CEO Christian Sewing would be able to return the bank to profit.
Friday, June 1: Deutsche Bank is going to face new cartel and criminal charges in Australia.
Friday, June 1: Deutsche Bank shares hit new all-time low.
Continue reading “Weekly Overview: Deutsche Bank; Italy; US Unemployment”
Here are highlights from May 2018,
Our three most read posts in May 2018
2. Healthcare could soon be the largest expenditure of households in the U.S.
