Why wouldn’t it be?
Is China selling U.S Government Bonds (Treasury Bills, T-Bonds and Notes) given the trade war tensions between China and the United States? The simple answer to that is no. Actually, no major foreign country holder of bonds is really selling.
But you might wonder what is going on if you make a chart look like this,
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Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009 the difference between bank deposit growth and bank loan growth in the U.S. diverged in a big way, graph below,
Broad Money M3
Broad money (M3) includes currency, deposits with an agreed maturity of up to two years, deposits redeemable at notice of up to three months and repurchase agreements, money market fund shares/units and debt securities up to two years.
Real gross domestic product for the United States increased at an annual rate of 4.1% in Q2 2018 according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Personal taxes now contribute a multi-year record 45.7% of total Federal government receipts.
The United States government is likely to run a record fiscal deficit this year due to lower tax receipts. And given deficits since 2001, Federal debt is soaring (chart below). In the immediate aftermath of the last recession, the Federal Reserve was a major buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Since 2014 though, the Fed isn’t really a buyer of Treasury bonds. The question is who is buying federal government debt?
The first estimate for the European Union exports of goods in May 2018 was €160.9 billion, down by 2.7% compared with May 2017 (€165.4 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €160.7 bn, down by 1.4% compared with May 2017 (€163.0 bn). As a result, the European Union recorded a €0.2 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in May 2018, compared with a surplus of €2.3 bn in May 2017. Intra-European Union trade rose to €294.7 bn in May 2018, +1.6% compared with May 2017.
In January to May 2018, the European Union exports of goods rose to €786.6 bn (an increase of 1.5% compared with January-May 2017), while imports rose to €795.7 bn (an increase of 1.6% compared with January-May 2017). As a result, the European Union recorded a deficit of €9.1 bn, compared with a deficit of €8.1 bn in January-May 2017. Intra-European Union trade rose to €1457.3 bn in January-May 2018, +4.6% compared with January-May 2017.
The home vacancy rate is the proportion of the homeowner inventory that is vacant for sale.
The rental vacancy rate is the proportion of the rental inventory that is vacant for rent.
Here are the home and rental vacancy rates for each state of the United States (Data Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census),
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Some states in the United States have done exceptionally well over the past decade creating massive number of new jobs and reporting record low unemployment. There are reports of major labour shortages in at least some states currently.
Here are maps of the unemployment rate in each state in May 2008 and May 2018,
Both residential and non-residential construction spending continue to grow in the United States. Total construction spending for May 2018 was an annualized $1.31 trillion, up from $1.25 trillion in May 2018.
Continue reading “Construction Spending continues to grow at a rapid pace in the United States”