Why wouldn’t it be?
We will be publishing a number of statistics for the United Kingdom (and the European Union) over the next few days in the run up to a major piece we will be publishing on the real economics of Brexit.
Montenegro, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are countries on the road to join the European Union.
The U.S. economy is doing great and is set to contribute 25% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, its highest share since 2007. The rise of the U.S. dollar and increases in interest rates are squeezing emerging economics at an unprecedent pace. But it isn’t just emerging economies that are feeling the squeeze, Europe has its problems with Italian debt (and yields), the Australian dollar which has long been considered a growth asset has been falling this year and elsewhere trade worries and rising oil prices are having a big impact on other nations. Even German factory orders are the weakest in years as the U.S. is truly taking back economic leadership.
Canadian household credit growth is slowest since 2001 with Household credit (Annualized 3-month growth rate) growing at 2.98% and Household Mortgage credit (Annualized 3-month growth rate) growing at 2.85%.
We will be publishing a number of statistics for the United Kingdom (and the European Union) over the next few days in the run up to a major piece we will be publishing on the real economics of Brexit.
U.S. Consumer Inflation at 2.9% is the highest since February 2012. And it isn’t just energy prices causing inflation to soar. Core inflation (which is Consumer inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices) at 2.4% has risen at the fastest pace in a decade. Here is a chart for CPI inflation growth,
We wrote earlier this year on the downsides of synchronised global growth. We wrote that when global synchronised growth begins to end the U.S. dollar strengthens, investors run away from emerging markets, interest rates continue to rise to tame inflation and bad debt becomes an issue. All of this is happening now, first the US Dollar, here is the 1-year performance of the U.S. Dollar mapped,
UK GDP in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between Q1 2018 and Q2 2018. GDP rose by 1.3% in Q2 2018 compared with the same quarter a year ago.
We couldn’t find any official Money Velocity numbers for the Euro Area (Eurozone) so calculated it using the Equation of Exchange
Equation of Exchange
MV=PQ
Money Supply (M) * Money Velocity (V) = Price level (P) * Real economic output (Q)
Which means Money Supply * Money Velocity = Nominal GDP
Therefore, Money Velocity = Nominal GDP/Money Supply
We have the numbers for both Money Supply (from OECD – Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and Nominal GDP (from Eurostat) for the Euro Area.
Continue reading “Euro Area or Eurozone Money Velocity seems to be shockingly low”
Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009 the difference between bank deposit growth and bank loan growth in the U.S. diverged in a big way, graph below,
Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in the Eurozone and by 0.4% in the European Union (EU28) during the second quarter (Q2) of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
