Weekly Overview: UK interest rate hike expectations; Argentina hikes interest rate to 40%; LIBOR OIS; US Money Supply growth accelerating again; Bank of Canada and Bank of England speeches

UK interest rate hike expectations

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England meets on Thursday, May 10 to decide the direction of interest rates.

Following a weak UK Q1 2018 GDP growth of only 0.1%, the slowest since Q4 2012 (read here) and inflation falling from 2.7% in February to 2.5% in March (against a Bank of England target of 2%), the market is now pricing in a 17% of a rate rise in May. The market had factored in a 100% chance of a hike just a few weeks ago.

UK 10-year bond yields fell 5bps during the week. The 10-year bond now yields 1.4% (up 0.32% over the past year)

Continue reading “Weekly Overview: UK interest rate hike expectations; Argentina hikes interest rate to 40%; LIBOR OIS; US Money Supply growth accelerating again; Bank of Canada and Bank of England speeches”

Household saving rates are falling globally

We recently wrote about the UK household savings ratio falling to a record low of 4.9% in 2017 (since comparable records began in 1963) as growth in households’ spending exceeded the growth of households’ income. (Read more here).

Households saving ratio, seasonally adjusted
UK Household Saving Rate, Source: Office for National Statistics

We also wrote about the household savings rate in the US falling to a multi-year low of 3.1% as household expenditure grew quicker than income (Read more here). Continue reading “Household saving rates are falling globally”

Weekly Overview: Q1 2018 GDP numbers; ECB on QE; US bond yields soar; Other things

Q1 2018 GDP

The US, the UK, France and Spain all reported GDP numbers over the last week.

US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018 as per an advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Read more about it here.

Personal consumption collapsed, with vehicle sale falling significantly. Business inventories were up significantly too. Total employee compensation (which includes wages and benefits) rose 2.7% over past 12 months, up from 2.4% a year ago and the highest since Q3 2008, while the household savings rate fell to a multi-year low of 3.1%.

Continue reading “Weekly Overview: Q1 2018 GDP numbers; ECB on QE; US bond yields soar; Other things”

US Q1 2018 GDP estimated at 2.3% as personal consumption collapses; wage growth highest in a decade; personal saving rate falls

US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018 as per an advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

US GDP Q1 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Continue reading “US Q1 2018 GDP estimated at 2.3% as personal consumption collapses; wage growth highest in a decade; personal saving rate falls”

This is what has happened to the unemployment rate in the US four to eight months before every recession since the 1940s and why it matters now

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveals that the US unemployment rate has a hit a new multi-year low four to eight months before the start of every recession since the 1940s. In other words, the economy hits full employment four to eight months before the start of a recession.

The graph below might help visualise it better (the shaded areas indicate recessions),

US unemployment rate 1948 to 2018
US unemployment rate (shaded areas indicate recessions); Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Why does this matter now? Continue reading “This is what has happened to the unemployment rate in the US four to eight months before every recession since the 1940s and why it matters now”

The European banking crisis is far from over

Hidden away in the European Central Bank’s supervisory and prudential statistics are metrics for asset quality. It isn’t easy to find and if you do find them then the spreadsheets won’t open without issues. Once If you manage to get them to work you will find some quite stunning statistics.

Here are the numbers and graphs for asset quality as of September 30, 2017 (the latest set of data available), Continue reading “The European banking crisis is far from over”

Weekly overview: US employment numbers; Bond yields fall globally over the past month; Stock markets volatility

US employers added only 103,000 jobs in March as against 185,000 new jobs expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Jobs have been added for 90 straight months, the longest phase on record. January’s job addition number was revised sharply downward from 239,000 to 176,000. Wage growth was 2.7% which was largely down to tax cuts driven wage rises earlier during the year rather than real wage inflation.

Any addition under 80,000 new jobs a month would cause the unemployment rate to rise. As we covered earlier, unemployment has always hit record multi year lows on an average 6 to 12 months before the start of a recession.

The graphs below might help visualise it better, Continue reading “Weekly overview: US employment numbers; Bond yields fall globally over the past month; Stock markets volatility”