Those three U.S. recession indicators – how near or far are those from being invoked? End of 2018 edition

We wrote about three slightly different U.S. recession indicators that have been predictive of the past few recessions and have been tracking how near or far are those from being invoked, here’s where we are at the end of 2018,

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Some aviation statistics for the European Union

A record of over 1 billion air passengers travelled by air in the European Union in 2017. In 2017, 1.04 billion passengers travelled by air in the European Union (EU), up by 7% compared with 2016 and by 39% compared with 2009.

In 2017, intra-EU transport represented almost half (47%) of total air passenger transport in the EU and extra-EU transport over a third (36%), while national transport accounted for fewer than 1 in every 5 passengers (17%).

Air passenger traffic in the European Union 2017
Source: Eurostat

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Here’s how much European Union Member states spend on social protection as percentage of GDP

Social protection expenditure in the European Union (EU) stood at 28.2% of GDP in 2016. In 2016, the two main sources of funding of social protection at EU level were social contributions, making up 55% of total receipts, and general government contributions from taxes at 40%.

Social protection expenditure by European Union member state
Source: Eurostat

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Sweden’s first interest rate hike in seven years would put pressure on the European Central Bank to act

Sweden’s Central Bank, the Riksbank raised interest rates for the first time in seven years on Thursday which might cause further European monetary tightening. Riksbank’s benchmark repo rate was raised 25 bps from -0.5% earlier to -0.25%. It still remains negative though.

Sweden Repo Rate December 2018

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European Union Statistics for Total Debt to GDP, Banking Non-Performing Loans and Loan to Deposit Ratio

European Union Debt to GDP

European Union total debt (Debt of general governments and the private sector) as percentage of GDP is now over 300%. Ireland’s total debt to GDP is an eye watering 450%. A decade ago the EU total debt to GDP was 180%, the debt bubble is well and truly here.

EU deEU debt to GDP in each member country

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The UK just changed the way they account for student loans which means the UK will likely have a fiscal deficit at least until the 2040s

The UK’s higher education funding system is unique in many ways and a change today is quite significant in terms of fiscal accounting. Firstly, here’s a timeline of the student loan system in the UK.

UK Student Loan Policy Timeline

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Almost every major Wall Street strategist has been way off with their target for the S&P 500 for 2018 yet their 2019 targets are mostly bullish again

We look back at 2018 year end S&P 500 targets as 2018 draws to a close. The S&P 500 is currently down about 3% year to date and unless something drastic happens almost every major Wall Street strategist will be way off with their target for the S&P 500 for 2018. We also look at 2019 targets which are all bullish again. Will the predictions for 2019 be any better on target than they were for 2018?

S and P 500 ytd until 20181214

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