We recently posted about population percentage for each country by age. The data was for 2016 from the World Bank and is the latest set of available data. Here is a map of population percentage for age 65 and above:
Government bond yields have never been lower with 2-year yields for most of Europe currently negative. The European Central Bank (ECB) is by far the biggest holder of European bonds and the biggest (almost 90%) buyer of the weaker Eurozone (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) countries debt since 2015. The ECB balance sheet is now over 4.5 trillion Euros, some 45% of Eurozone GDP.
Even 10-year yields for Japan and Switzerland are barely positive.
Yields on government bonds for all maturities over 3 months have never been lower in the history of the world .
Some 80% of 10-year Japanese government bonds are held by the Bank of Japan. And apparently there are days when no one trades those 10-year bonds because there is no point of trading it. Why? Well, because the Bank of Japan has a policy to control yield curves and since they hold majority of it there are hardly any price movements.
An aging world: Babies born in 2018 can expect to live to over 100. In 2015, there were around 600 million people aged 65 or over and that number is expected to rise to over 2 billion by 2050.
Changing demographics: There are currently 8 workers in employment for every retiree today, that number is likely to reduce to 4 workers in employment for every retiree by 2050.
Underfunding: The UK currently has $6.2 trillion in underfunded government and public-sector employee pensions. For the US that amount is over $25 trillion.
Lower bond yields: Previous funding assumed 7% bond yields, the number has been much closer to 2.5% since 2009 which has caused major deficits. Continue reading “The looming pension crisis”
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