The great U.S. Government bond yield convergence chart

U.S. 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year yields are all converging. Looks like a beautiful chart, just one thing …

These Treasury yields have almost converged three to six months before each of the past five recessions. This isn’t a good sign, but perhaps this time it is different. Another thing – this is a sign that interest rate increase expectations are falling.

Here are yields as of August 8, 2018

2-year: 2.68%
3-year: 2.76%
5-year: 2.84%
7-year: 2.92%
10-year: 2.98%
20-year: 3.06%
30-year: 3.12%

 

Related:

Those three U.S. recession indicators – how near or far are those from being invoked?

This is what has happened to the unemployment rate in the US four to eight months before every recession since the 1940s and why it matters now