Too much of Analysis causes Paralysis

This Time it is Different. No graphs, no charts and no data. Just some food for thought questions. Answers welcome on a postcard in the comments section.

arrows all directions

1. Which generation had better economic conditions? The one with high interest rates, high inflation, low asset prices, few travel opportunities and (mostly) a job for life [OR] the one with low interest rates, low inflation, high asset prices, ample travel opportunities and many jobs and flexible working conditions during the work life?

2. Can Nations really continue to borrow money indefinitely without having to ever pay it back in full? Can the Debt to GDP ratio continue growing for Nations?

3. If data and customer insights have significantly improved (with big data, the apparent power of the cloud and other things) then why have customer service standards gone the other way?

4. If Artificial Intelligence (AI) is to really drive most vehicles does it mean people won’t learning driving? Will AI powered cars have ethics? Will they stop if a person steps in front of them? Will they stop if a balloon blocks their path?

5. If AI can translate languages with great accuracy, then does it mean fewer people will learn new languages? Does it mean nations with a language advantage (in the form of a language being spoken more commonly) will lose their advantage? Does it mean more languages will survive?

6. Fuel efficiency aside, why are commercial airplanes slower than they were two decades ago? And while on the topic of aircrafts, why are airline seats getting smaller if generally people are getting bigger?

7. Has human intelligence peaked? Or are the next generation more connected, smarter and intelligent? Has common sense peaked?

8. Why do Nations with the highest proportion of those aged 65 or over have low (and in most cases zero or negative) interest rates? Do they want people to invest in riskier assets?

9. Do you believe inflation and wage growth numbers?

10. If wearing an electronic device to track physical activity was mandatory for health and life insurance, then would fewer people take insurance? If all cars were to be fitted with telematic devices for insurance purposes, then would road safety improve or become worse?

11. If employers insisted on embedding an electronic device or chip to track employees, then would more people become self-employed? Or would the entire population have embedded electronic chips?

12. If the world does become cashless then which asset class will replace cash as a safety net?

One Reply to “Too much of Analysis causes Paralysis”

  1. My opinions…

    1. Which generation had better economic conditions? The one with high interest rates, high inflation, low asset prices, few travel opportunities and (mostly) a job for life [OR] the one with low interest rates, low inflation, high asset prices, ample travel opportunities and many jobs and flexible working conditions during the work life?
    Probably the first, as they would be more likely to have a greater net worth and less debt. Depends on a case-by-case basis though.

    2. Can Nations really continue to borrow money indefinitely without having to ever pay it back in full? Can the Debt to GDP ratio continue growing for Nations?
    If all nations do the same, then why not. No one would hold anyone else responsible for it.

    3. If data and customer insights have significantly improved (with big data, the apparent power of the cloud and other things) then why have customer service standards gone the other way?
    Some have improved a lot, like Amazon, others have replaced people with analytics to save costs and maintain the same or a slightly worse level of customer service. On average, probably the same or worse, however some are much better, some much worse.

    4. If Artificial Intelligence (AI) is to really drive most vehicles does it mean people won’t learning driving? Will AI powered cars have ethics? Will they stop if a person steps in front of them? Will they stop if a balloon blocks their path?
    People will still need to drive for liability reasons. You always need a backup. Take planes as an examples. Algorithms can’t have ethics, just logic which can be pre-programmed or self-programmed (AI).

    5. If AI can translate languages with great accuracy, then does it mean fewer people will learn new languages? Does it mean nations with a language advantage (in the form of a language being spoken more commonly) will lose their advantage? Does it mean more languages will survive? There is a downward trend in number of languages spoken. Those most widely used and propagated by the internet will dominate.

    6. Fuel efficiency aside, why are commercial airplanes slower than they were two decades ago? And while on the topic of aircrafts, why are airline seats getting smaller if generally people are getting bigger? Planes are slower than Concorde because of cost of operation / profits. Seats are smaller to make more profits: fit more people on.

    7. Has human intelligence peaked? Or are the next generation more connected, smarter and intelligent? Has common sense peaked? Intelligence would need to be defined clearer. Critical thinking is probably in decline as people have become intellectually more lazy as information is easy to access. and less problem solving is typically required.
    Technical advancement will continue to improve on a global scale due to learning methods, human population/statistically, productivity, possible more risk of war, etc.

    8. Why do Nations with the highest proportion of those aged 65 or over have low (and in most cases zero or negative) interest rates? Do they want people to invest in riskier assets?
    Because they are the most developed ones which have become more ‘financialised’ and therefore super low interest rates were thought to be needed after the financial system crash in 2008. Unfortunately they coordinated after 2008 and have kept them extremely low for a long time. Perhaps this is linked to the economic thought of these countries: monetary policy to fix economic problems. Most are probably influenced by US economic theory also.

    9. Do you believe inflation and wage growth numbers?
    Inflation: No
    Wage growth: Not sure

    10. If wearing an electronic device to track physical activity was mandatory for health and life insurance, then would fewer people take insurance? If all cars were to be fitted with telematic devices for insurance purposes, then would road safety improve or become worse?
    Depends on whether they think they’d get a better deal or not from the insurer.

    11. If employers insisted on embedding an electronic device or chip to track employees, then would more people become self-employed? Or would the entire population have embedded electronic chips?
    Depends on whether employees feel like they would be discriminated against or trusted to work from home or not.

    12. If the world does become cashless then which asset class will replace cash as a safety net?
    It won’t become cashless. Countries won’t allow it to happen. There will always be a form of ‘currency’ due to the economic system.

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