Why wouldn’t it be?
How often do analysts get the markets wrong? How often to fund managers get stock picks wrong? They get things wrong far more often then they get it right.
2017 was probably the worst year for hedge funds. And the start of 2018 isn’t turning out to be any better.
The problem probably lies with everyone focussing on the business cycle rather than the structural factors driving the markets. Continue reading “Markets should ignore cyclical factors and focus at the structural factors instead”
The divergence of interest rates, bond yields, inflation, currency strength, budget deficit and total debt of countries around the world has never been bigger. We look at how the US, the UK, the Eurozone, Japan, Switzerland and India are doing in addressing paying off their debt. Continue reading “High (or hyper) inflation or long term zero (or negative) interest rates – how might the world pay its debt?”
This is how much train operators in the UK are subsidized, Continue reading “This is how much train operators in the UK are subsidized”
Jamie’s Italian and Barbecoa, Strada, Byron, Prezzo, Chimichanga, MEXIco, Cleaver, Square Pie, EAT – the growing list of chain restaurants in the UK which have either completely closed or are closing several restaurants.
The fashion store East, shoe chain Shoon, bed specialists Warren Evans and Feather & Black, toy store Toys R Us, electronic store Maplin have all gone into administration or liquidation. Meanwhile House of Fraser, Debenhams and New Look are all struggling, with all three considering large-scale closures of stores or space.
Even grocery retailers Tesco, Sainsburys and Morrisons have announced staff redundancies. So, what is happening? Continue reading “Retail and restaurant apocalypse in the UK?”
An aging world: Babies born in 2018 can expect to live to over 100. In 2015, there were around 600 million people aged 65 or over and that number is expected to rise to over 2 billion by 2050.
Changing demographics: There are currently 8 workers in employment for every retiree today, that number is likely to reduce to 4 workers in employment for every retiree by 2050.
Underfunding: The UK currently has $6.2 trillion in underfunded government and public-sector employee pensions. For the US that amount is over $25 trillion.
Lower bond yields: Previous funding assumed 7% bond yields, the number has been much closer to 2.5% since 2009 which has caused major deficits. Continue reading “The looming pension crisis”
Here is a chart of the average quoted interest rate on savings/deposits in the UK (Source: Bank of England) since 2011, Continue reading “Will saving/deposit interest rates in the UK really improve if the base rate goes up? One chart might answer the question”
Greece (Moody’s Credit Rating: Caa2) is now paying 83 bps lower interest on 2-year bonds than the US (Moody’s Credit Rating: Aaa). Is the US now truly the exception? Continue reading “US 10-year bond yield hits a 4-year high, is the US now an exception?”
Aggregate total net wealth of all households in Great Britain was £12.8 trillion in July 2014 to June 2016, up 15% from the July 2012 to June 2014 figure of £11.1 trillion. Continue reading “This is how wealthy UK households are (as per the Office for National Statistics)”
Businesses are bigger than ever. In terms of revenue, 69 of the 100 largest global entities are now corporations, not countries Continue reading “How M & A activity and record stock buybacks have reduced share buying choices and further driven up stock prices”
Banks in the UK have set aside £42 billion (US $59 billion) to cover Payment Protection Insurance or PPI compensation so far (starting 2011). We will look at how much has this compensation contributed to the GDP. Continue reading “How much has Payment Protection Insurance or PPI compensation contributed to the UK GDP?”