Weekly Overview: Emerging Market Rout; New Italian Government; Japan GDP; Oil surge continues

Emerging Markets are being routed with rising oil and a soaring US dollar

Here is the performance of the US dollar against emerging market currencies (figures in brackets are 1-month % change),

USD/MXN – Mexico 19.9450 (+8.17%)
USD/INR – India 67.9850 (+3.23%)
USD/TRY – Turkey 4.4894 (+10.07%)
USD/BRL – Brazil 3.7375 (+10.33%)
USD/ZAR – South Africa 12.7550 (+6.71%) Continue reading “Weekly Overview: Emerging Market Rout; New Italian Government; Japan GDP; Oil surge continues”

US and emerging market bond yields soar; UK retail; US Student debt; German GDP

US and emerging market bond yields

The US 10-year bond yield soared to 3.09% today (up 75 bps over the past year and 25 bps over the past month), the highest since 2011. The 2-year yield hit 2.59%, the highest since August 2008 (read more here on the financial impact of rising yields for the US Government).

The bigger story is of emerging markets though. Brazilian and Indian 10-year yields have soared 33 bps in just a week. The Brazilian 10-year bond yield topped 10.12% while the Indian 10-year bond yield topped 7.91%. The US dollar has gained 7% against the Brazilian Real and 4% against the Indian Rupee over the past month.

Canadian bond yields are soaring the most amongst developed nations with the 10-year yield hitting 2.51%, up 94 bps over the past year and 24 bps over the past month. Continue reading “US and emerging market bond yields soar; UK retail; US Student debt; German GDP”

Weekly Overview: The Baltic Dry Index is up 48% over the past month; Argentina seeks IMF bailout; UK House Prices; Brazil 10-year bond tops 10%; Coal prices soaring

Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index is a trade indicator that measures shipping prices of major raw materials and is often seen as a global growth indicator.

Over the past month, it has zoomed 48%. It is up 45% over the past year and is up 8% since the start of the year. This despite weaker US, UK and France Q1 2018 GDP growth. The Baltic Dry index generally falls in the first quarter on back of lower trading activity due to the Chinese New Year but this time it hadn’t recovered until very recently.

Here is a chart of the index over the past month,

Continue reading “Weekly Overview: The Baltic Dry Index is up 48% over the past month; Argentina seeks IMF bailout; UK House Prices; Brazil 10-year bond tops 10%; Coal prices soaring”