US employers added only 103,000 jobs in March as against 185,000 new jobs expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Jobs have been added for 90 straight months, the longest phase on record. January’s job addition number was revised sharply downward from 239,000 to 176,000. Wage growth was 2.7% which was largely down to tax cuts driven wage rises earlier during the year rather than real wage inflation.
Any addition under 80,000 new jobs a month would cause the unemployment rate to rise. As we covered earlier, unemployment has always hit record multi year lows on an average 6 to 12 months before the start of a recession.
The graphs below might help visualise it better, Continue reading “Weekly overview: US employment numbers; Bond yields fall globally over the past month; Stock markets volatility”
The Greek stock market has been one of the best performing markets in the world over the past year. The Athens Stock Exchange General Index has returned 19% over the last year. But it has lost 85% (5334.5 to today’s close at 781.14) in value since October 2007. Continue reading “The Athens Stock Exchange General Index has returned 19% over the last year (but lost 85% since 2007); Australian interest rates are lower than that of the US for the first time in 18 years”
Spotify’s direct listing
As reported earlier, Spotify listed directly on the NYSE today at an opening price of $165.90, the stock ended the first day of trading in New York at $149.01, up from the reference price of $132 set yesterday by the NYSE.
Spotify has offered a streaming service since 2008 and has 159 million monthly active users including 71 million paid subscribers globally. It generated €4 billion (about $5billion) in revenues last year, up over 40% from 2016, and a €1.2 billion ($1.5 billion) net loss compared with about €542 million ($664 million) in 2016. The company’s average revenue per user has declined from €6.84 in 2015 to €5.32 in 2017 as it promotes its “Family Plan” which allows several users to share one account. Analyst reckon that Apple Music will overtake Spotify in terms of paid subscribers in under 2 years, yet the company is now valued at $28 billion (5.6 times revenues). Continue reading “Spotify’s direct listing (and comparison to Netflix); ECB sells bond after spotting an error after 2 years; Nomura to hire fewest graduates in five years as it spends more on robots”
The 10 largest asset managers in the world, a list that includes BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Fidelity, Allianz, UBS and JP Morgan Asset Management have some $32 trillion assets under management (at the end of 2017). The entire space of asset managers have around $65 trillion of assets under management.
Fund managers have over $3 trillion of new inflows a year, primarily down to private pensions (governments keep pushing it given the looming state pension crisis). These fund managers get paid as long as they invest the money. There lies the problem – they have to invest it. It isn’t as simple as it sounds. Continue reading “The problem Asset Managers have is that they have money that must be invested”
Goldman Sachs computer model warns a bear market is near, but the firm’s analysts don’t believe it (read here). So, if a bear market arrives – they were right (well their computer model was), no bear market – they were still right.
JP Morgan has said investors are ‘overreacting’ and investors should buy the market dip for a big rally ahead (read here). How big? 13%. Which would just about take us back to the highs the market hit at the end of January. Will they do as they say? Who knows.
Meanwhile, 10-year US bond yields have fallen 12 bps (to 2.78%) in the past week since the 0.25% Federal Funds rate target increase. As the Federal Reserve pares back its bond holdings, the US government is bringing more to market, yet yields have been falling.
Here are some interesting things from the FOMC releases (text in italics are our comments), Continue reading “On Equities – Do as they say, not as they do? On Bond Yields – some things from the FOMC minutes”
How often do analysts get the markets wrong? How often to fund managers get stock picks wrong? They get things wrong far more often then they get it right.
2017 was probably the worst year for hedge funds. And the start of 2018 isn’t turning out to be any better.
The problem probably lies with everyone focussing on the business cycle rather than the structural factors driving the markets. Continue reading “Markets should ignore cyclical factors and focus at the structural factors instead”
1. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 34% over the past year.
2. Tencent Holdings (the owner of WeChat – the WhatsApp equivalent in China and several other things) is up 116% over the last year. It is currently worth over $550 billion and is most valuable social media company (bigger than Facebook).
3. Ping An Insurance (Ping An Insurance Group Company of China Ltd) is now the world’s largest and most valuable insurance company. Its stock is up 110% over the year. Continue reading “Here are some interesting things you may have missed in the equity, commodity, currency and bond markets”
Music streaming service Spotify has officially filed its paperwork to go public through a direct listing.
It plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under ticker SPOT. Continue reading “Spotify to go public with a direct exchange listing”
As stock markets globally continue to fall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index fell 1,032.89 points or 4.15% today (February 8, 2018). Continue reading “As stock markets make big moves, isn’t volatility what traders wanted?”