Month: June 2018

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This is what is likely to happen when the European Central Bank ends bond buying

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Wednesday that it will halve its bond buys to 15 billion Euros (from the current 30 billion Euros) a month from October then shut the programme at the end of the year.

Source: European Central Bank

ECB’s balance sheet has increased by 2 trillion Euros since 2015 when it announced its bond buying programme. 2-year yields for most of the Eurozone countries are currently negative and 10-year yields in most cases are lower than that of the United States. The European Central Bank (ECB) is by far the biggest holder of European bonds and the biggest (almost 90%) buyer of the weaker Eurozone (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) countries debt since 2015. The ECB balance sheet is now over 4.5 trillion Euros, some 45% of Eurozone GDP.

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Three slightly different US recession indicators

Here are three slightly different US recession indicators that have been predictive of the past few recessions,

30-year and 10-year Treasury yield

The 10-year Treasury yield has been greater than the 30-year Treasury yield three to six months before each of the past four recessions. Graph below for the past decade, the shaded areas indicate recessions,

US 30 year and 10 year yield 2008 to 2018
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)

And the 30-year, 20-year and 10-year Treasury yields have almost converged three to six months before each of the past five recessions as well. Graph below, the shaded areas indicate recessions,

US 30 20 and 10 Treasury Yield
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)

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Do economic fundamentals matter anymore? Part 3 of 3

Do economic fundamentals matter today? We look at the strange market conditions today. We are living in truly interesting times …

Read Part 1
Read Part 2

Super low Government bond yields

Government bond yields have never been lower with 2-year yields for most of Europe currently negative. The European Central Bank (ECB) is by far the biggest holder of European bonds and the biggest (almost 90%) buyer of the weaker Eurozone (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) countries debt since 2015. The ECB balance sheet is now over 4.5 trillion Euros, some 45% of Eurozone GDP.

Even 10-year yields for Japan and Switzerland are barely positive.

Yields on government bonds for all maturities over 3 months have never been lower in the history of the world .

Some 80% of 10-year Japanese government bonds are held by the Bank of Japan. And apparently there are days when no one trades those 10-year bonds because there is no point of trading it. Why? Well, because the Bank of Japan has a policy to control yield curves and since they hold majority of it there are hardly any price movements.

Continue reading “Do economic fundamentals matter anymore? Part 3 of 3”

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Do economic fundamentals matter anymore? Part 2 of 3

Do economic fundamentals matter today? We look at the strange market conditions today. We are living in truly interesting times …

Read Part 1

Soaring Government Debt

Just 30 out of the 193 countries that report data to the IMF reported a budgetary surplus in 2017. Only 2 of the 20 G20 nations reported a budgetary surplus. These were South Korea (1.21% of GDP) and Germany (0.69% of GDP).

Government budget surplus or borrowing as % of GDP
Source: International Monetary Fund

Continue reading “Do economic fundamentals matter anymore? Part 2 of 3”

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Do economic fundamentals matter anymore? Part 1 of 3

Do economic fundamentals matter today? We look at the strange market conditions today. We are living in truly interesting times …

Stock Market Valuations

Equities globally have never been more valuable with market capitalization hitting $90 trillion.

Amazon trades at what a Price to Earnings ratio of some 200. Apple is worth some $900 billion. Even Tesla which makes no profit and is unlikely to make any profit any time soon is worth some $55 billion, more than Ford or General Motors.

Netflix is valued at $159 billion (13.6 times revenues of $11.7 billion) with 110 million paid (and 117 million total) subscribers. Netflix trades at a price to earnings ratio of 220. The company expects free cash flow of -$3 to -$4 billion in 2018 (yes, that is negative cash flow). Yet Netflix’s market cap is now greater than Disney’s and Comcast’s.

Don’t mention fundamentals …

Continue reading “Do economic fundamentals matter anymore? Part 1 of 3”

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50 countries have seen a change to their interest rate in the past three months, with exactly half each seeing an increase and half seeing a decrease

Are interest rates rising or falling globally? Well, if the past three months are anything to go by then the world is moving in different directions with regards to interest rates. So much for synchronized increases or decreases in interest rates …

Here is a map of changes,

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Here is how much total assets or balance sheets of Central Banks have grown in the 21st century

Central Banks have grown their balance sheet in the past 20 years and almost exponentially since the 2008 financial crisis

Bank of Japan

Total assets: 540.8036 trillion Yen (JPY) = 4.93 trillion US Dollars (USD)
As of date: May 1, 2018
Asset size as percentage of GDP: 101% of GDP

Source: Bank of Japan

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